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United States. Central Intelligence Agency

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East Asia

China

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South Africa

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Eastern Europe

Soviet Union

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CIA Reports on the Collapse of Communism in Europe

Mikhail Gorbachev, 1986

Gorbachev, Mikhail Sergeevich

1931- 2022

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Poland

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Nuclear Proliferation

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Yeltsin, Boris

1931- 2007

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Walesa, Lech

1943-

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Shevardnadze, Eduard Amvrosievich

1928- 2014

Indian Nuclear History

Chinese Nuclear History

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Reform and Opening in China, 1978-

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January 24, 1990	National Intelligence Daily for Wednesday, 24 January 1990 The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for Wednesday, 24 January 1990 describes the latest developments in South Africa, China, USSR, Cambodia, Poland and Yugoslavia.
June 5, 1990	National Intelligence Daily for Tuesday, 5 June 1990 The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for Tuesday, 5 June describes the latest developments in Liberia, South Africa, Iran, USSR, Yugoslavia, China and Taiwan.
June 27, 1990	National Intelligence Daily for Wednesday, 27 June 1990 The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for 27 June 1990 describes the latest developments in the Soviet Union, Poland, Bulgaria, the European Community, Zambia, Iran and China.
July 28, 1990	National Intelligence Daily for Saturday, 28 July 1990 The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for 28 July 1990 describes the latest developments in Persian Gulf, Liberia, Bulgaria, the Soviet Union, Poland, Papua New Guinea, China, Zaire, OPEC, Haiti and South Africa.
August 24, 1991	National Intelligence Daily for Saturday, 24 August 1991 The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for 24 August 1991 describes the latest developments in the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Cambodia, Lebanon, France, El Salvador, South Africa, China and Iran.
July 1991	National Intelligence Estimate, NIE 5-91C, 'Prospects for Special Weapons Proliferation and Control' With the term “weapons of mass destruction” having not yet fully come into general usage, this NIE used the term “special weapons” to describe nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons (formerly the term “special weapons” was sometimes used to describe nuclear weapons only). With numerous excisions, including the names of some countries in the sections on “East Asia and the Pacific” and “Central America,” this wide-ranging estimate provides broad-brushed, sometimes superficial, pictures of the situations in numerous countries along with coverage of international controls to halt sensitive technology exports to suspect countries.
January 20, 1983	Special National Intelligence Estimate, SNIE 13/32-83, 'Chinese Policy and Practices Regarding Sensitive Nuclear Transfers' With nuclear proliferation a policy priority for the Jimmy Carter administration, and Pakistan already a special concern, the possibility that China and Pakistan were sharing nuclear weapons-related information began was beginning to worry US government officials. These concerns did not go away during the Reagan administration. While nuclear proliferation was not a top priority, the administration was apprehensive about the implications of the spread of nuclear capabilities and that China may have been aiding and abetting some potential proliferators by selling unsafeguarded nuclear materials.
January 20, 1966	National Intelligence Estimate, NIE 4-66, 'The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation' This estimate updated an estimate (NIE-4-2-64) published in 1964 of the nuclear proliferation problem. That estimate, like this one, overestimated the likelihood of an Indian bomb, while somewhat underestimating Israel’s program. This assessment followed the same pattern—predicting India would produce a weapon within a “few years” and also putting Israel in the “might” category, although treating it as a “serious contender” nonetheless. Also following a short discussion of the “snowball effect” (later known as “proliferation cascades” or “chains”) suggesting that the United Arab Republic (Egypt-Syria) and Pakistan were likely to take the nuclear option should India or Israel go nuclear.