Aleksandr Kapto reflects on the Soviet Union's normalization of relations with South Korea, and the consequential fallout in relations between North Korea and the USSR. According to Kapto, North Korea threatened to develop nuclear weapons and withdraw from the NPT as a result of Soviet-South Korean rapprochement.

This estimate updates the 1974 predictions, and analyzes the “earliest dates of the technical feasibility of possession of a nuclear device” of the Republic of China, Pakistan, South Africa, The Republic of Korea, Argentina and Brazil, among others.

With proliferation becoming a “greater threat to US interests over the next five years,” intelligence analysts believed that the “disruptive aspect of the proliferation phenomenon will constitute the greater threat to the United States.” While the estimators saw “low potential” for terrorist acquisition of nuclear weapons, the likelihood of terrorist/extortionist hoaxes was on the upswing. Significant portions of the NIE are excised, especially the estimate of Israel’s nuclear arsenal and its impact in the Middle East. Nevertheless, much information remains on the countries of greatest concern: Iraq and Libya in the Near East, India and Pakistan in South Asia, Brazil and Argentina in Latin America, and the Republic of South Africa, as well as those of lesser concern: Iran, Egypt, Taiwan and the two Koreas.

Several memoranda of conversations between U.S. Secretary of Defense James R. Schlesinger and Park Chung Hee and other leading South Korean officials.

American officials in Washington, D.C., conclude that South Korea is in the initial stages of developing a nuclear weapons program.

A memorandum produced for Henry Kissinger laying out U.S. policy towards the South Korean nuclear program.

A State Department report on possible U.S. approaches towards South Korea's nuclear reprocessing plans.

A report on America's discussions with French and Canadian suppliers on the South Korean nuclear program, as well as on U.S. policy towards reprocessing in the ROK.

American officials in Washington, D.C., conclude that South Korea is in the initial stages of developing a nuclear weapons program.

Just a few months into President Reagan’s first term his administration wanted to make its own mark on nonproliferation policy. The report suggests building “broader bilateral relationship[s]” and offering political and security incentives could persuade states considering developing nuclear weapons to cease these efforts.